Despite the regional crisis, property owners in Dubai are not selling. Here’s why — and what the official DLD figures tell us about the future.
01 — The Numbers
A market that entered the crisis from a position of historic strength
Even before tensions escalated, Dubai was recording its strongest real estate year in fifty years of history. According to the Dubai Land Department (DLD), 2025 marked the fifth consecutive year of all-time records.
AED 917 Billion
in transactions in 2025 (DLD)
205,100
residential sales
+18% vs 2024
129,400
new investors in 2025 (+23%)
AED 111 Billion
in January 2026 alone
February 2026 (before the conflict)
The DLD recorded 16,959 real estate transactions in February 2026, with a combined value of AED 60.60 billion, representing a 5% increase in volume and an 18.14% increase in value compared to February 2025. Arabian Business
Residential prices increased by 0.71% over the month and 10.79% year-over-year. Trade Brains
Ramadan 2026 (Feb 18 – Mar 19)
(period overlapping with the beginning of the conflict)
The market recorded 15,196 transactions worth AED 50.58 billion — an increase of 29.7% in value and 5.63% in volume compared to the same period in 2025.
Ramadan is traditionally a slower period for the market, but 2026 defied that trend. Gulf News
March 2026 (during the conflict)
Overall market activity remained strong, with 17,461 transactions recorded for a monthly volume of AED 72.4 billion, while demand in the off-plan market continued to dominate. Trade Brains
The Director General of the DLD publicly stated:
“Our objective for 2033 is to reach one trillion in transactions. In 2025, we are already at 917 billion. 2026 will be a major year.”
These were the foundations on which the crisis hit — not a fragile market, but a market at the peak of its strength.
02 — Investor Behavior
They are not selling. Here’s why.
The question everyone is asking: are owners panicking?
The answer, supported by data, is no.
| Behavioral Indicator | Current Situation |
|---|---|
| Cash transactions (early 2026) | ~60% of deals |
| Properties above AED 10M sold in Jan. 2026 | 990 transactions |
| Recovery in property viewings (10 days after the conflict began) | +75% |
| Off-plan contract cancellations | Almost zero |
| Average decline in physical property prices | ~4%, not a collapse |
The main reason: 60% of real estate purchases in Dubai are made in cash.
No mortgage. No bank recalls. No pressure for forced sales.
Owners are freely choosing to stay — and they are choosing to stay.
03 — The Resilience of the United Arab Emirates
The crisis is strengthening confidence, not destroying it
On February 28, 2026, Iran launched more than 1,130 missiles and drones toward the UAE.
The UAE’s multilayer defense system intercepted 95–96% of them.
Dubai International Airport resumed commercial flights in less than 8 days. Daily life in Dubai returned to normal within days.
The three major rating agencies — S&P, Moody’s, and Fitch — maintained the UAE’s AA sovereign rating without any downgrade following a large-scale ballistic attack.
This is a rare and powerful institutional statement.
Shopping malls, hotels, schools, and offices reopened at near-normal capacity.
Dubai Mall attendance reached 190,000 visitors per day by the second week.
The city did not stop.
2026 Dubai Equestrian World Cup – March 29, 2026
04 — The Lesson of History
Dubai has rebounded before. Every single time.
The 2008 global financial crisis. COVID-19 in 2020. The war in Ukraine in 2022. The Gaza conflict in 2023.
With every crisis, the market corrected — then went on to reach a new record.
Transactions rose from AED 71.5 billion in 2020 to AED 917 billion in 2025.
That represents a twelvefold increase in just five years.
Those who hesitated after COVID in 2020 missed the largest real estate rally in the emirate’s history.
Those who waited after Gaza in 2023 watched the market break five consecutive records.
Dubai After the Crisis: Stronger, Not Weaker
Zero income tax.
Zero tax on real estate capital gains.
10-year Gold Visa.
90,000 visas issued in 2025.
AA sovereign rating maintained under missile attacks.
Airport reopened within 8 days.
For the future investor, the question is no longer whether Dubai is safe.
The answer is already written in the data.
The real question is: when to enter the market.
Sources: Dubai Land Department (DLD) · S&P Global Ratings · Moody’s · Fitch · Knight Frank MENA · Gulf News · The National · CNBC · CBUAE
